Kamis, 27 Desember 2007

Is it better to save, or invest in your business?

A reader recently sent me this e-mail:

"My daughter-in-law wants to save, but cannot convince my son. He thinks that every dollar she tries to save would be better off going straight into his business.

She and I have talked about the importance of saving. I would love to show her the plan to save $1 million by the time she is a certain age. She is 34 now. How much per month will she need to save to reach $1 million by age 50 or 60?"

Figuring out how much to save per month to reach $1 million can be a good motivational tool, especially if someone is young. (In fact, I recently used it with my daughter.) But to get the reader's son onboard with a plan to put away some money for the future, it may work better to focus less on the potential reward of saving and investing, and focus on the potential risk of small businesses instead.

Not much motivation
The sacrifice required to reach $1 million by age 50 won't sway the son (or encourage his wife) to start saving. To reach that goal, the couple would have to sock away nearly $2,300 per month for the next 15-1/2 years (assuming a 10% average annual return, which you can get with a well-mixed portfolio of stock and bond mutual funds).

Waiting a decade or so makes the amount more palatable, but still tough to swallow: $725/month to reach a million by age 60, and $427/month to get there by age 65 (such is the magic of compounding). Doable, but still unlikely to convince Sonny Boy that the money is better off invested in stocks and bonds than in his own business-building skills.

Offsetting a huge risk
Which is where risk comes in. Investing solely in one's own business is a lot like investing in the stock of an individual company--except, if you're just starting out, even riskier. Many small businesses fail within the first five years (depending on the source, between 50% and 80%). The son may invent the next Google, but he may not. Saving money for the future to offset this huge risk isn't a comment on his business idea or abilities; it's good financial sense.

Come together on a plan
That said, my e-mail friend should encourage her son and his wife to sit down together and establish a concrete plan. It should have room for both saving for tomorrow and investing in the business, with well-defined and mutually agreed upon goals and definitions of success.

Since they are relatively young, the couple could put more money toward the business initially, with the caveat that they evaluate the return on their investment in a year or so. If the business is showing signs of progress, they may even be able to increase the amount they're putting toward both goals. If not, they could evaluate whether it's time to shut the operation down. Either way, the decision should be theirs--not his or hers.

Potential reward is the aspect many people consider first about investing, but don't forget about risk. Understanding your own comfort with it--as well as that of your spouse--can go a long way toward making you a wise investor.

Kamis, 06 Desember 2007

Mortgage bailout is the object of my ire

Ok, I know it's been a while--more than three months since my last post. In that time, I've welcomed a new daughter into the world, passed another test on my way to a Chartered Financial Consultant designation, and scrambled to find and buy a replacement car for my Sentra, which unexpectedly died on the Pa. Turnpike. So I've been busy.

What prompted me to write today? Outrage. The culprit? The Bush mortgage bailout plan. It's even made me do something that I've never done before: write to my congressman and senators. (That would be Jim Saxton, Frank Lautenberg, and Bob Menendez--and you didn't even think I knew who they were, did you, Dad?)

Wish I had the government in step in to freeze the rate on the ARM I took out on my first house back in 1999, when I didn't know any better. Would have been nice to pay the low initial rate I got for an extra five years.

Better yet, wish M and I had used an ARM to buy that oh-so-nice $464,000 house we looked at a few years ago. We knew we could never afford it with a fixed-rate mortgage on our five-figure income. What were we thinking? We could still be living there, sitting pretty with an affordable rate until 2012. And who knows, by then I could have turned this blog into a money-making machine, become CEO of my company, or hit the lottery, so we could afford the payments when the rate resets then.

One anonymous poster on Real Time Economics sums up my feelings about the Bush plan pretty well, plus gave me a chuckle:

"I would like the government to help me out with my gambling debt in Vegas. The casino didn’t explain the rules very well. And I didn’t realize that the house had the advantage. I would like my life savings back. If you could just give me a little more time, I think I could win it all back. Please help me!"

Shhhh, anonymous...Don't give Washington any more bright ideas.