Thanks, Washington, but the economy doesn't need your help

I have a few cherished Philadelphia Phillies bobblehead dolls on a bookshelf in my basement. When M and I aren't looking, our 3-year-old son likes to play with them. So not surprisingly, one day I came home to find Mike Schmidt with his arms snapped off.

"I've told you before: DO NOT TOUCH," I admonished my son while super-gluing Schmidty's limbs back into place. "It's not your toy to play with. Now leave it alone because you'll break it even more."

The "broken" economy
I find myself saying the same things today--except directed at President Bush, Bernard Bernanke, Nancy Pelosi, and all the others in Washington scrambling to "fix" the economy. The stock market is swooning, economic growth is slowing, and people--make that voters--are screaming: "The economy stinks and Washington doesn't care!"

So to show they have a heart, our government officials will offer up what many want: $150 billion to spend in the form of tax rebates, and lowered interest rates for borrowing money "more affordably." But isn't spending and borrowing how we got here in the first place?

As I see it, economic and investing forces aren't broken; they're working quite well. For example, when demand exceeds supply, prices drop (as with the housing market today). And with high risk can come punishing losses instead of soaring gains (as banks and mortgage companies have had to relearn).

No short-term fixes
What is broken is general perception: that Washington must do something to fix the economy. No, it shouldn't. Tax rebates while fighting a multibillion dollar war fought on two fronts and running up a monstrous federal deficit is a bad idea. Making borrowing more attractive while more people are struggling to pay the debt they already have is a bad idea.

No doubt, things look bleak right now. They will likely get worse in the months ahead. Unwinding the housing bubble of the last few years will take some time and involve some pain. Believe me, I don't enjoy seeing that M's and my 401(k) is down about $13,000 since the end of the year alone, and that our townhome has lost about $15,000 in value over the last several months.

But I have little faith that Washington's short-term fiscal band-aids will make things better in the long term. They won't change $90-$100 per barrel oil or fast-rising health care and education costs. Or Americans' general tendency to spend more than they earn.

Instead, the President and Congress should just leave the economy alone. "Don't touch it. It's not your toy to play with. You'll just end up breaking it even more."

Then again, those warnings don't really work with my son, either.

A dose of humility on a Sunday morning

I was just lamenting this morning to M about our disposal income--or lack of it. After paying all our fixed bills, accounting for groceries and household expenses, there isn't much breathing room left each month for for additional saving, such as for a down payment on a new house or our kids' college (we're pretty well-covered for retirement, primarily thanks to generous contributions from my employer).

And then I came across this headline in today's Philadelphia Inquirer:

Donor built millions on $11 an hour

Paul Navone is a retired mill factory worker from Vineland who made a fraction of what most people make today. Yet he just gave $2 million to a community college and a prep school.

Granted, Navone has never been married, is childless, doesn't own a TV, and shops in thrift stores for his clothes--a lifestyle that isn't exactly appealing and has definitely contributed to his stored-up wealth. It's a tradeoff I'd never want to make.

But it's still humbling to think about. I'm fortunate to have a stable job that produces a good income--well-above $11 an hour. Why the heck am I complaining? And what could I be doing differently to change the situation?

Is it better to save, or invest in your business?

A reader recently sent me this e-mail:

"My daughter-in-law wants to save, but cannot convince my son. He thinks that every dollar she tries to save would be better off going straight into his business.

She and I have talked about the importance of saving. I would love to show her the plan to save $1 million by the time she is a certain age. She is 34 now. How much per month will she need to save to reach $1 million by age 50 or 60?"

Figuring out how much to save per month to reach $1 million can be a good motivational tool, especially if someone is young. (In fact, I recently used it with my daughter.) But to get the reader's son onboard with a plan to put away some money for the future, it may work better to focus less on the potential reward of saving and investing, and focus on the potential risk of small businesses instead.

Not much motivation

The sacrifice required to reach $1 million by age 50 won't sway the son (or encourage his wife) to start saving. To reach that goal, the couple would have to sock away nearly $2,300 per month for the next 15-1/2 years (assuming a 10% average annual return, which you can get with a well-mixed portfolio of stock and bond mutual funds).

Waiting a decade or so makes the amount more palatable, but still tough to swallow: $725/month to reach a million by age 60, and $427/month to get there by age 65 (such is the magic of compounding). Doable, but still unlikely to convince Sonny Boy that the money is better off invested in stocks and bonds than in his own business-building skills.

Offsetting a huge risk

Which is where risk comes in. Investing solely in one's own business is a lot like investing in the stock of an individual company--except, if you're just starting out, even riskier. Many small businesses fail within the first five years (depending on the source, between 50% and 80%). The son may invent the next Google, but he may not. Saving money for the future to offset this huge risk isn't a comment on his business idea or abilities; it's good financial sense.

Come together on a plan

That said, my e-mail friend should encourage her son and his wife to sit down together and establish a concrete plan. It should have room for both saving for tomorrow and investing in the business, with well-defined and mutually agreed upon goals and definitions of success.

Since they are relatively young, the couple could put more money toward the business initially, with the caveat that they evaluate the return on their investment in a year or so. If the business is showing signs of progress, they may even be able to increase the amount they're putting toward both goals. If not, they could evaluate whether it's time to shut the operation down. Either way, the decision should be theirs--not his or hers.

Potential reward is the aspect many people consider first about investing, but don't forget about risk. Understanding your own comfort with it--as well as that of your spouse--can go a long way toward making you a wise investor.

Mortgage bailout is the object of my ire

Ok, I know it's been a while--more than three months since my last post. In that time, I've welcomed a new daughter into the world, passed another test on my way to a Chartered Financial Consultant designation, and scrambled to find and buy a replacement car for my Sentra, which unexpectedly died on the Pa. Turnpike. So I've been busy.

What prompted me to write today? Outrage. The culprit? The Bush mortgage bailout plan. It's even made me do something that I've never done before: write to my congressman and senators. (That would be Jim Saxton, Frank Lautenberg, and Bob Menendez--and you didn't even think I knew who they were, did you, Dad?)

Wish I had the government in step in to freeze the rate on the ARM I took out on my first house back in 1999, when I didn't know any better. Would have been nice to pay the low initial rate I got for an extra five years.

Better yet, wish M and I had used an ARM to buy that oh-so-nice $464,000 house we looked at a few years ago. We knew we could never afford it with a fixed-rate mortgage on our five-figure income. What were we thinking? We could still be living there, sitting pretty with an affordable rate until 2012. And who knows, by then I could have turned this blog into a money-making machine, become CEO of my company, or hit the lottery, so we could afford the payments when the rate resets then.

One anonymous poster on Real Time Economics sums up my feelings about the Bush plan pretty well, plus gave me a chuckle:

"I would like the government to help me out with my gambling debt in Vegas. The casino didn’t explain the rules very well. And I didn’t realize that the house had the advantage. I would like my life savings back. If you could just give me a little more time, I think I could win it all back. Please help me!"

Shhhh, anonymous...Don't give Washington any more bright ideas.

When should I get rid of my high-mileage car?

I’m approaching 193,000 miles on my 1998 Nissan Sentra GXE, and I’m in a quandary. When should I buy another car with lower mileage?

My Sentra, unlike the one shown here, is in fair condition. It runs a little more sluggishly and loudly than it used to. A small dent from backing into a friend’s car is noticeable, but not terribly so. The interior is clean and tear-free, with a few minor upholstery stains that I could scrub out.

My wife and stepdaughter see my Sentra as a “junker.” I see it as a wise choice for my driving needs. I’ve logged 100,000 miles in about four-and-a-half years traveling 105 roundtrip miles daily to work and the car has required just one non-maintenance repair of over $500. It’s 30 miles-per-gallon has been nice in this era of $2.50-plus per gallon gas prices. And I could conceivably sell it for about $2,800, according to Kelly Blue Book—an amount that’s held fairly steady even as the miles have piled higher.

Sell the car now or later?
With 200,000 miles approaching, I’m actually a little excited. Just how many miles can I get? But I also know I’m living on borrowed time. If the car does die, it will be worth nothing.

I’ve been watching the market for used Nissans, Toyotas, and Hondas on phillycars.com, a local car-buying site. I could get something similar to my Sentra with less than 100,000 miles for $4,000 to $7,000. M and I have some cash saved to get another car for me, but we also dip into that reserve when our monthly cash flow gets tight. A part of me wants to use that money for the car sooner rather than later, before we drain it completely.

Going to keep driving—for now
Still, I’m tempted to keep wringing as many miles as I can out of my trusty Sentra. There’s a good chance that it will die a slow death, with steadily increasing repair bills, rather than suffer a sudden automotive cardiac arrest. Then I could keep it running until I find a car and a deal I like, which is better than being forced to take whatever cars and deals are available at the time because I need a car to drive.

What would you do?

The truth about budgeting

Research has shown that about 40% of all households maintain a monthly spending plan, or budget. While they make up less than half of us, do budget-users know something non-budgeters don’t? Have they discovered a secret to make budgeting less of a chore?

Unfortunately, no. Here are three truths that I've learned about using a spending plan, and that other users would likely agree with:

Planning ahead is hard. Unexpected expenses come up every month and prices on most things (not just gas) continue to rise. Sometimes spending predictions are off—even way off.

Tracking spending is a pain. A purse or wallet stuffed with receipts is annoying. And even with budgeting software, logging all the information can be time-consuming.

Budgets are "restrictive." Yes, a budget will restrict you from buying what you want--especially if you can’t afford it.

So now you know: Budgeting isn’t fun. But that's true about many things in life that are good for us. Watching what we eat and sweating it out at the gym aren’t easy, for example. But the satisfaction you can get from a trim, healthy body makes the effort worthwhile.

Financial talk-show host Dave Ramsey likes to say that folks who get on a monthly budget often feel like they’ve gotten a raise. Such can be the power of planning and knowing where your dollars are going each month. And that can lead to some fun--that you really can afford--in the long run.

Financial emergency brings one couple closer together

A financial crisis like a job loss can put enormous stress on a marriage and a family. But it can also bring deeper problems to the surface that can turn it into a blessing in disguise.

For instance, Sara and Tom always considered themselves a typical American family when it came to their household finances. They each worked full-time, carried some credit card debt, and generally lived within their means.

But in the back of her mind, Sara knew something wasn’t right. Whenever she sat down to pay the bills, she felt a sense of fear and insecurity. “We’ve always been okay financially. We didn’t overspend and we are not extravagant people, but we didn’t have an emergency fund,” she said.

In a financial bind
Like many people, Sara and Tom [I’ve changed their names to respect their privacy] felt there was no reason to expect a financial crisis. They both have good jobs—Tom is in the New Jersey state government, Sara is a sixth-grade science teacher—where they’ve worked for more than 20 years. But in the spring of 2004 Tom had to stop working due to a serious illness, putting the family in a bind.

“We needed to learn how to live on one salary when we were just doing okay on two salaries. We didn’t know how we were going to do it,” Sara said.

I met Sara and Tom through Good $ense, a financial counseling ministry I serve with through our church. While a crisis had prompted them to seek counseling, it was evident that Sara and Tom often were not on the same page financially. Sara is more of a saver, Tom more of a spender. Money was often a source of conflict in their marriage.

Accountable to their budget
As their counselor, I helped Sara and Tom examine their income, assets, and spending patterns. They learned how to create a spending plan for their family each month, something they had never been able to do before. Each time we met, they stayed accountable as to how well each was sticking to the plan. As they began to monitor their budget and plan together how to pay their bills with less income, the stress and conflict caused by the money problems subsided.

“[The counseling] put us on the right track,” said Tom. Sara agreed, “It helped me to feel secure and safe when everything felt out of control.”

A catalyst for positive change
Thankfully, Tom has since recovered from his illness and is working again. Though the emergency is over, the lessons on budgeting and getting on the same financial page have stuck with them. A crisis turned into a catalyst for positive change in their marriage and financial life.

“The funny thing is, we were more financially together during that time of our lives than ever before,” Tom said.